By: Meir Javedanfar - www.meepas.com

05/10/2005

Yemen – the next Afghanistan?

September 11 was a crushing reminder to all of us that the mixture of poverty, fundamentalism and corruption even in lands thousands of miles away such as Afghanistan can impact us. In terms of Afghanistan this problem was only treated when it reached critical stage for the western countries. Looking at the economic, political and security problems being faced by Yemen today; unless action is taken to assist the authorities there, Yemen can turn into the next Afghanistan.

Yemen already is one of the poorest countries of the Middle East and the Arab world. Oil is Yemen's biggest income earner as it provides 70% of government revenues whilst constituting 87% of the total goods and services exports.

The bad news is that based on current projections Yemen is about to get poorer.

This is owing to a number of estimates which predict that Yemen's oil resources will be depleted by the year 2015. Looking at Yemen's current economic plans and natural resources, there are no other industries planned which will be able to generate the same amount of income and energy as oil currently does for Yemen.

To make a tough situation more difficult, Yemen's water resources are also being depleted at an alarming rate where it is estimated that by year 2011 Yemen's water resources will have reached critically low levels. Meanwhile lawlessness and militant fundamentalism are rising, partly due to poverty and rampant availability of guns. In a country of approximately 20 million, many estimate that there are 40 million guns available. That's 2 guns for each Yemeni.

Economic progress is made even more difficult due to high levels of corruption. According to Transparency International, Yemen is the 113th least corrupt country. This ranking places Yemen in the same league as some of the world's most corrupt countries.

The Yemeni government does bear some of the responsibility for the problems at home. Short sighted decision making, such as siding with Saddam during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait lead to tens of thousands of Yemenis losing their jobs in the oil rich Persian Gulf states. Furthermore the inability to fight corruption effectively has meant that a unignorable portion of Yemen's income and resources are squandered on buying political allegiances and power.

However it would be a mistake to place the entire blame for Yemen's problems on the shoulders of the government.

Tucked away at the southern end of the Middle East Yemen has long been the forgotten and ignored member of the Middle East. The fact that the country has so little oil compared to its neighbours (especially Saudi Arabia) is one of the important reasons. Furthermore the fact that Southern and Northern Yemen only reunified as one country in 1991 after more than 30 years of separation has meant that implementation of law, especially in southern former communist areas of Yemen has been difficult. This is notwithstanding the massive reunification costs which the Yemeni government has had to bear.

It is estimated by the IMF that next year Yemen's real GDP will grow by only 2%. To put this into perspective, in the year 2006, Yemen's population growth will be faster than the growth of its economy. Lack of economic progress is exasperated by high inflation rate and a growing budget deficit. Meanwhile the number of poor in Yemen is increasing every year, whilst oil and water resources fall.

If left to manage its own problems Yemen in less than ten years will turn into the poorest and one of the most politically unstable countries of the region where guns outnumber people. However unlike Afghanistan Yemen's geographical remoteness can not be ignored. Yemen sits right at the porous border of Saudi Arabia. Increase in militancy in Yemen will lead to major support for fundamentalists in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore Yemen's position at the foot of the Gulf of Aden and the strategic location of Bab el Mandeb strait make it very important as this is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, with an estimated 3.2-3.3 million barrels per day oil flow.

Yemen already is facing serious security challenges. Al Qaeda is already present in the country, in fact Al Qaeda's founder Osama Bin Ladin comes from a very strong Yemeni heritage. Furthermore until very recently hardline followers of Yemen's Shiite sect (known as Zaidis) have been involved in a bloody civil war with government forces for the last number of years leading to thousands of deaths.

Yemen needs urgent foreign assistance from Western countries and especially from the Arab world. The bumper financial harvests reaped by Persian Gulf states this year will be a good place to start supporting Yemen.

Delays in the treatment of this problem may very well lead to the world finding itself having to deal with the after effects of a problem which if treated earlier would have been much easier to resolve. Such mistakes were made regarding Afghanistan in the 1990s, lets not make the same mistakes with Yemen. Otherwise next time Osama Bin Ladin may not have to travel thousands of miles away to foreign lands such as Afghanistan to find support. He will be able to do it in the land of his forefathers - Yemen.

End of Analysis

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Meir Javedanfar is a Middle East Analyst and the Director or the Middle East Economic and Political Analysis Company, www.meepas.com He has been quoted and interviewed by the BBC, Radio Holland International, Haaretz Newspaper and the Boston Globe as well as a number of other newspapers and Radio stations. For rights to quote this article please contact analysis@meepas.com

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