By: Meir Javedanfar - www.meepas.com

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23/06/2005

Introduction:

From Nashville USA to the bloody streets of Baghdad all the way to the streets of Tehran Iranian voters cast their ballots last Friday 17 th of June 2005. According to the government 62% of the population turned out to vote. Anti government forces have disputed that figure. As there were no independent international observers at the elections it is difficult to asses the exact voter participation rate. A reasonable estimate being floated by a number of Iranian analysts is 55%.

One issue which was and is still hotly debated is the high number of votes cast for Mahmoud Ahmedinejad the conservative Mayor of Tehran, as he was one of the unlikeliest candidates to score so many votes. This is due to his relative anonymity outside Tehran and the province of Ardebil which is where he was the governor during the tenure of Rafsanjani's Presidency until 1997.

Rumours have it that Ayatollah Khamenei instructed Iran's armed forces to vote in force for Ahmadinejad due to their shared conservative ideologies regarding issues such as the economy and Iran's relations with the West.

Taking the allegations of foul play into consideration, nevertheless the message of those who did genuinely vote for Ahmadinejad must be taken into consideration.

The high number of votes cast for Tehran's hard line Mayor Mr Ahmedinejad is the Iranian public's message to the Iranian government that their biggest concern is corruption which they want addressed in a urgent and decisive manner.

The epidemic levels of corruption in Iran are confirmed by international observers. None more so than the Non Government Organisation Transparency International's survey which placed Iran at position 88, amongst the world's most corrupt countries. The level of corruption and the need for bribery in Iran is so high that the International Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom has classified conditions for doing business in Iran as “repressed”. This ranking signifies the lowest level of economic freedom. It is particularly embarrassing for the Iranian government as it places Iran in the same economic ranks of hermit states such as North Korea and economic dwarfs such as Cuba. This is despite the fact that Iran has the world's second largest gas reserves and is OPEC's second biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia.

Question of image

Ahmedinejad is seen as an “honest” hard liner. However more important than that he is seen as having a cleaner and less corrupt image than his competitors. To many in the public he did not abuse the system to get rich.

As the mayor of Tehran Ahmedinejad brought improved services to Tehran's poor southern neighbourhoods. The residents of such neighbourhoods contributed much to the revolution and to the war against Iraq with the lives of their children who they sent to fight at the battle front.

However they felt cheated and left behind when it came to the distribution of wealth and social services by the central government. Mahmoud Ahmedinejad changed that up to a certain extent by providing better services.

Meanwhile Ahmadinejad's talk of providing more budgetary authority to each of Iran's provinces has been a big hit with rural voters as many in rural areas of Iran accuse Tehran of neglect and selfishness when it comes to distribution of wealth. It must be noted that such areas are the centres for core government support. Therefore Ahmadinejad's performance there has made him popular the conservatives such as Ayatollah Khameneini and the Guardian Council.

To many voters Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani stands at the other end of the moral scale.

One of the veterans of the revolution, despite boasting about the need to defend the poor and fight corruption Rafsanjani cultivated his internal influence plus his alleged western connections to become one of the wealthiest businessmen in Iran. For example according to a number of reports Iran's second international airline Mahan Airlines ( http://www.mahanairlines.com ) boasting 8 Airbus and 4 Tupolov aircraft belong to Rafsanjani's family. Reports also point to Rafsanjani family owning a large chunk of Iran's largest auto manufacturer Iran Khodro ( http://www.ikco.com ). Other reports point to the Rafsanjani family's involvement in Iran's pistachio industry as well as construction and even the sacred oil sector.

International confirmation of the extent of Rafsanjani's involvement in public business deals came in 2003. In that year Norway's anti crime police discovered a $5.2 million payment made by Statoil ASA, Norway's largest oil company to a company in London with very close links to Rafsanjani's son. It was suspected that the payment was meant as bribe to ensure that the Norweigan company gets a drilling deal in one of Iran's natural gas fields in the Persian Gulf. The matter jolted Rafsanjani so much that for the first time in Iran's history a leader publicly appeared on the TV to explain his financial status. Rafsanjani went on to claim that the allegations made against him were fabricated by the “enemies of the revolution”.

Friday's Forecast

The battle at the ballot box will be intense tomorrow. Ahmadinejad's popularity with the conservatives, the underclass and the Armed forces will provide him with good chances. However Rafsanjani's talk of economic development and rapprochement with the West is likely to strike a stronger chord with the Iranian public.

This is because to many Iranians Ahmadinejad's election will mean a return to the bad days of early 1980s when Iran was an almost international hermit state whilst the government's strict adherence to Islam made the lives of Iran's citizens quite restricted. Furthermore even if Ahmadinejad is elected there is no guarantee that he will not turn into a corrupt businessman much like others in the government.

However with Rafsanjani everyone already knows he is corrupt therefore there will be no surprises there. However unlike Ahmadinejad at least he will take Iran forward by opening up its economy and relations with the West - as he has promised. Many more believe Rafsanjani's promise. Not because they believe he is an honest person. However because the Iranian people know that development of Iran's economy and improved relations with the West also serve Rafsanjani's business interests. Therefore this opportunity of common economic interest between the people and rulers of Iran is unlikely to be missed by the voters.

End of Analysis

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