By: M. Javedanfar

14/08/2005

One of the most popular descriptive phrases one hears these days from foreign politicians regarding Israel's withdrawal from Gaza is “step forward for peace and security”. This statement is certainly true. Except that there is one word which is missing. That word is temporary.

The crucial factor which one must understand is this; as far as the Palestinians and the international community are concerned Israel's withdrawal from Gaza is not an end to occupation of Palestinian lands captured after 1967. Therefore despite the fact that Israel sees the withdrawal as a unilateral good will gesture towards peace, the Palestinians only see it as a partial solution to a problem created by Israel.

Therefore no one should expect an end to the conflict after the Gaza withdrawal is completed.  

At best what we will see is a period of six months of calm, enough to enable Hamas to claim the spoils for what it sees as a victory for its military campaign against Israel. Hamas will also want to translate its image as the victor into votes at the Palestinian ballot box. The current prognosis is that based on its relatively corruption free image, plus its strong security apparatus in Gaza, Hamas will do very well at the elections. 

Meanwhile the PLO will use the immediate six months after the withdrawal to use the aid pledged by the international community to create jobs, security and better social services for Gazans, with the ultimate aim of beating Hamas's increasing influence. In reality the PLO will need every assistance it can get. Allegations of corruption, chaos, infighting and military inferiority in Gaza compared to Hamas have lowered its popularity and profile.

However the moment of truth for many in the region will be after the withdrawal celebrations are over and the Palestinian political process has started. This is where chances for violence will increase significantly and this will not be the first time.

The same happened to Arafat after his triumphant return from Tunis. After the party hats were put away, upon the realisation that Israel was not going to return all the lands immediately as he wanted, return to militancy became much more attractive to him. His convictions were strengthened after he realised the mundane life of a bureaucrat (sitting in education budget meetings) was so much less attractive than the glorious image of a fighter.

The same will happen to Hamas and more militant parts of the PLO. Competition between the two over influence in Gaza, plus the fact that Israel will not be evacuating more lands in the immediate future is very likely to turn both parties to the direction of violence.

This is notwithstanding the other powerful catalyst for violence in Gaza which is Islamic Jihad. The small militant organisation will be one of the biggest instigators of violence due to the fact that it has decided not to participate in the elections. This will mean that violence is its only tool in the race for influence against the PLO and Hamas. This will be another factor impelling Hamas and militant PLO factions to restart their military campaign as their leadership will not want to lose out to Islamic Jihad in the military arena of the Palestinian struggle.

So where will this leave the peace process? Well in some aspects after the withdrawal we will be back to square one. In light of the predicted violence Israel will ask for cessation of violence as a preclude for the resumption of peace talks. As before the Palestinian militants will call for an end to Israeli occupation as their condition for a cease fire.

Therefore if the withdrawal from Gaza will not stop the violence against Israel, then why go ahead?

To answer this question one must look deeper into the past and personality of the architect of the disengagement plan, Ariel Sharon.

In his book entitled “warrior” which was published in 1989 Ariel Sharon is quoted as saying “I became more convinced than ever that the key to beating Israel's enemies is to put them off balance. The trick, the necessity was not to let them fight their battles but always do the unexpected. With Stratagems you shall wage war says the biblical proverb. And each time the stratagems had to be something different, something surprising, something demoralising”.

Realising that the Palestinian extremists would not give up their militant campaign until they have recaptured at least all of the territory captured by Israel after 1967, the disengagement plan is Sharon's way of putting the extremists off balance. By withdrawing Israel's citizens from deep within Gaza, Sharon is depriving the Gazan militants of their trump card which was the occupation. It was this card which constrained Israel's military capability to throttle the militants.

After Sharon's withdrawal stratagem is in place the extremists will find that the rules of the game have changed. After each of their attacks they will see that the world more and more views them as terrorists and less as resistance fighters. Although they may not care such terrorists would be well advised to understand that after recent spate of terrorist bombings in Madrid and London, the world's tolerance for terrorism is falling fast.

To Palestinian terror organisation this factor will be a severe handicap which will provide Israel with a freer hand to strike at them, and this is one threat they can not ignore.

End of Analysis

Subscribe to the meepas Middle East Analysis Review subscribe@meepas.com

Logon to meepas.com for access to detailed background and current political and economic analysis of 16 Middle Eastern countries.

www.meepas.com All rights reserved - Disclaimer