|
Printer Friendly
Version
05/03/2008
By Meir
Javedanfar
The smile on
Ahmadinejad's face said it all. His was the smile of a
victorious leader, visiting a country which represented
his sworn enemy in the 1980s.
Back then, he
was an officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp
(IRGC). Now he was returning as the most controversial
and right-wing extremist political leader Iran has ever
had; a fact that didn't seem to bother his
hosts.
The United
States has every reason to be extremely concerned about
the friendly
tone of
Ahmadinejad's visit to Iraq.
Had a Soviet
premier been warmly greeted in South Vietnam in the late
1960s, at a time when the US was providing South Vietnam
with forces to fight communist North Vietnam, there
would have been uproar. The South Vietnamese would have
been accused of being ungrateful, at the very least.
Some may have gone as far as calling the South
Vietnamese as traitorous back
stabbers.
The very fact
that Iraq does not think twice about inviting Iran's
president, accused of financing the
death of hundreds of
US soldiers in southern Iraq, clearly demonstrates that
the US is losing influence in Iraq and in the Middle
East in general. This is on top of the fact that some
Shiite militias are wreaking havoc against their own
countrymen in Iraq.
The US has no
one to blame but itself. Thanks to one American misstep
after another, Iran has essentially written the “Idiot's
Guide to Becoming a Regional Superpower on the Cheap”.
It began with
the toppling of Saddam
Hussein, continued with the destruction of Iraq's
infrastructure, and its terrible job of repairing it.
This situation has allowed the Iranians to step in. For
a fraction of the money which the US has paid to secure
Iraq, Tehran is rebuilding infrastructure such as power
plants and roads in the South, and making itself more
popular.
The
NIE
report was another US
contribution, which resulted in a collective sigh of
relief in Arab capitals, including Baghdad. No longer
are Middle Eastern countries avoiding Tehran.
Disregarding President Bush's personal pleas to isolate
Tehran, they are welcoming Iranian leaders with open
arms.
The important
question to ask is whether this means we are looking at
the end of the road for US influence in the region?
The answer: not
yet. There is still a chance. One way to prevent it and
push back Iran's growing influence is to embark on a
reconstruction “surge”, similar to the military
one which we saw in Iraq.
Such a surge
should involve improving the coordination between
Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), and US forces in
Iraq, in order to strengthen the speed and efficiency of
the reconstruction process. The other step should be,
instead of giving dictatorial regimes such as Saudi
Arabia state-of-the-art weaponry, investing in health
and education programs in countries such as Lebanon, the
West Bank, and when possible, Gaza. By providing social
support, Iran has grown in influence.
Furthermore, in
order to hit the Iranian regime where it hurts, the US
should name and shame hundreds of Revolutionary Guard
companies, and other companies owned by Iran's
senior
Ayatollahs, which are
operating in the Persian Gulf countries.
These ventures
are lining up the pockets of Iran's official with
millions, thus enabling them to avoid the impact of
sanctions that are hurting the Iranian people.
After all, the
Iranian leadership shouldn't feel too triumphant or
arrogant over their successful diplomatic march across
the Middle East.
They would be
unwise to forget that back home, millions of Iranians
are unemployed, with inflation
eating into the little money they have.
Failure to
address these needs is more damaging to the regime's
credibility and survival than any sanctions or even
military action could accomplish.
End of Analysis.
This
article originally appeared in PJM
Media
.
Meir
Javedanfar is the co-author with Yossi Melman of “The
Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the
State of Iran.”
For a free subscription to
the meepas Middle East Analysis Review send an e-mail to
subscribe@meepas.com
Logon to meepas.com for access to detailed background and current political and economic analysis of
16
Middle Eastern countries.
www.meepas.com All rights reserved - Site Rules
|