Iran- Defensive Strategies



Iran- Defensive Strategies

Part 1 - Protecting Iran's Southern Flank

By: Meir Javedanfar

Despite US and Israeli denials about an imminent military attack against Iran, the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei is taking no chances. Iran 's military planners are concerned about the southern, eastern and western flank of the country as possible directions of an attack by enemy forces. Concerns for the western flank arise from the potential threat of an aerial attack from Israel , and/or from US forces in Iraq which are both located to the west of Iran. US air and ground forces in Afghanistan which is located to the east of Iran also pose a potential threat. Meanwhile Iran's southern flank is a source of concern to Iran 's military planners due to the massive US naval and aerial presence in the area.

This two part analysis by meepas looks at recent measures being taken by Iran to deter an attack from the aforementioned areas. The first part looks at Iranian efforts aimed at deterring at attack from the country's southern flank, whilst the second analysis by meepas on Thursday 14/04/2005 will analyse Iranian efforts aimed at preventing an attack from the country's eastern and western flanks.

It is the view of meepas that the biggest source of threat against Iran's nuclear installations comes from the southern flank of the country. This is due to the massive US naval and aircraft carrier presence which is located to the south of Iran in the Persian Gulf. Furthermore the US military capability is supplemented by regional support provided by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This is confirmed by the fact that Bahrain is home of the US Fifth Fleet and Kuwait has a military pact with the US. Furthermore Qatar has a military pact with the US allowing US forces the use of its ports and military airfields until the end of the decade, whilst Oman has an agreement with the US allowing the use of its ports by US warships.

What is worrying for the Iranian military planners is that the aforementioned US military capability is within very easy reach of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, especially the installations located at the Iranian port of Bushehr.

As means of countering the threats, Iran 's army and air force have been shoring up defences around the country's nuclear installations. However the impact of such defensive reinforcements is viewed as limited due the ageing technology of Iran s armed forces, especially its air force and anti aircraft equipment. Taking into consideration the disadvantages and limitations of this form of defensive strategy, the Iranian government has looked at other strategies in order to protect itself against a possible attack. One of the most widely reported of such strategies is the enhancement of Iran's offensive capability. As a result Iran has invested heavily in its missile technology. Consequently with technical assistance from North Korea , Iran has developed the Shahab-3 missile which is capable of reaching all US naval, army and air force bases in the Persian Gulf countries. Iran has also been investing in the development of its naval anti-ship missile technology which can be used to attack US shipping in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for a possible attack.

However what makes the new Iranian strategy more interesting is that Iran is not relying solely on its military capability. Tehran has also embarked on a strategy which entails the improvement of its political and economic relations with pro-US regimes to the south of the country. The goal of this strategy is to dissuade such regimes from supporting US military plans in the region especially ones which may entail an attack against Iran .

This strategy has been gathering significant momentum recently. Iran has been improving its previously confrontational relationship with Saudi Arabia. Tehran has also reduced its rhetoric against the Shiite majority - Sunni ruled Kingdom of Bahrain, whom Iran previously accused of discrimination against its Shiite population. Trade relations with UAE are improving year on year. Political relations with Oman have improved significantly especially after President Khatami's visit to the country in 2004. Economic relations with Oman have also expanded recently after the signed $10 billion deal to sell Iranian gas to Oman. Meanwhile despite its objections against Kuwait's close military relations with the US , Iran has been investing in the advancement of its relationship with the Kuwaiti government. The culmination of Iranian success in this area was the recently signed $7 billion deal to sell Iranian gas to Kuwait for the next 25 years. Meanwhile Iran and Kuwait have also agreed to resolve their differences regarding sovereignty claims over the Al Dorra oil fields in the Persian Gulf.

According to meepas Iran's plans to improve diplomatic and economic relations with its regional neighbours are an ongoing defensive strategy applied by the regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. Therefore we are likely to see further efforts by Tehran to improve its trade and cooperation with regional countries. Such efforts will be applied in parallel with Iranian efforts to sidestep the US by engaging and empowering non US parties such as the EU in the negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.

End of Analysis.