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By: Meir
Javedanfar
The new assessment
by US intelligence agencies, which states
that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003,
has been enthusiastically received by Iranian media and
officials.
“Bush is the biggest loser of
the US intelligence report” read the headline in
Wednesday’s edition of the Keyhan
newspaper. Similar sentiments were shared by the
pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News Agency, which called the
report is “a disgrace for the White
House.”
President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad himself joined in
the exultations. While addressing a large crowd in the
city of Ilam on Wednesday, he boasted that “the
publication of the recent US intelligence report with
regards to Iran’s nuclear program can be considered as
one of the biggest political victories for the people of
Iran.”
The biggest sigh of relief from
inside of Iran comes from moderate and reformist
elements who were worried that Ahmadinejad’s
controversial statements were exactly the excuse
President Bush was looking for to launch a military
attack against their country. In an article published in
the Tehran-based Iran Economist news agency, the editors
viewed the findings of the report
as
an “important block in Bush’s efforts to launch a war
against Iran.”
As
well as hoping that the report will avert a US military
strike, other Iranian officials are hoping that the
report will improve Iran’s diplomatic position.
One
such official is Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the
National Security Commission of the Iranian parliament.
In an interview with Fars news agency on Wednesday,
Boroujerdi predicted that the global coverage of the
report would trigger a “change in the current anti-Iran
atmosphere in the international community.”
Boroujerdi’s hopes are quite likely
to be realized. The new US intelligence
report will certainly
be a very useful reference for such countries as Russia
and China, who have been very hesitant to impose
sanctions against Iran. After this report, they can back
away from any effort to pressure Iran with more
ease.
The biggest victor is likely to be
Ahmadinejad
. He has been
saying all along that Iran is not making a bomb. Now he
has the stamp of approval from Washington, no less, to
back his claims.
This seems to be worrying some of
his rivals, both outside and inside of Iran. The Israeli
government is clearly its most
concerned
neighbor. Not only does Israel differ
with Washington in its assessment of Iran’s nuclear
program; Jerusalem is worried that the report may be
interpreted as a clean bill of health for Iran’s nuclear
program by its supporters. This would allow Tehran to
continue with its enrichment program, as well as the
hidden parallel program which Israel believes Iran
continues to operate today, with little
concern.
Meanwhile, there are officials inside Iran who
are concerned that the political victory handed to
Ahmadinejad by the report will enable him to walk away
from negotiations. This is a valid concern. After the
report, Ahmadinejad and his allies such as Saeed Jalili,
the current top nuclear negotiator, can say that Iran
has been exonerated and that therefore there is no need
to negotiate with the EU because there is nothing to
discuss.
One
such concerned official is Ali Larijani, Ahmadinejad’s
rival and Iran’s former top nuclear negotiator. In a
special television interview with Iran’s Channel One,
which broadcast the day after the release of the US
intelligence report, Larijani called for Iran to
maintain its relationship with the
EU’sforeign policy chief, Javier
Solana. This is due to Solana’s perceived closeness with
Mohammad El Baradei, the head of the IAEA.
Larijani reiterated this point by stating that Iran’s
improved relationship with the IAEA (evident in the
IAEA’s recent positive finding that “Iran has been
generally truthful about key aspects of its nuclear
history”) was a result of Iran’s good relationship with
the EU. Ali Larijani,
who is worried that his years of work and
confidence-building with Solana may now be abandoned by
Ahmadinejad, warned that ignoring negotiations with the
EU may enable the US
to start
increasing pressure, despite the new US intelligence
report’s positive findings concerning
Iran.
Larijani does have a point. President Bush is not
about to give up his goal of forbidding Iran to procure
the knowledge necessary to go nuclear, at least as long
as he is in power.
Judging
by Bush’s speech this week, Iran may have won the battle
but not the war.
This article originally appeared in
Pajamas Media. To read click here
Meir Javedanfar
is the co-author of “The
Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the
State of Iran.” He runs Middle East Economic and
Political Analysis
(Meepas)
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