By:
Meir Javedanfar
18/07/2008
The news that
the U.S. has agreed to be present at future
EU-Iran nuclear talks is a positive sign that Washington
has decided to learn from its recent achievements with
North
Korea
.
Until
today, the U.S. has left it to the Europeans, and their
chief policy advisor Javier Solana, to negotiate with
Iran. However, from now on, just as the case with North
Korea, the U.S. will be present at the
negotiations.
“The
substance remains the same, but this is a new tactic,”
said White
House spokeswoman Dana Perino. “What this does show
is how serious we are when we say that we want to try to
solve this diplomatically,” she added. And indeed it
does. This move will also allow the U.S. to become
closer to Sunni countries such as Saudi
Arabia who have called for a bigger U.S. diplomatic
push on this front.
This is
in addition to recent news that the U.S. is going to
open an interest
section in Tehran, a move which was welcomed by
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Both moves are likely to increase
U.S. leverage against Iran, while adding credibility to
the position of Washington as a strong power broker in
the Middle East.
This
shift in policy, which comes after 30 years of strained
relations between the two sides, has come at the right
time. Iran’s position in the region has been gathering
strength. As well as scoring successes in Iraq, the
recent prisoner exchange
between Israel and Hezbollah has given Tehran even more
influence.
To
those in the region who want to see a weakened Israel,
Iran’s ally Hezbollah has proved to them that
hostage-taking works, and that Israel is prepared to pay
any price, including the release of terrorists such as
Samir
Kuntar. And Hezbollah’s leader did not hide his
glee. Ridiculing
what he called the failure of Israeli intelligence to
determine the fate of its two soldiers, he told a
massive crowd in Beirut that “had the Zionists been able
to establish that their two soldiers are dead, they
would have demanded a different
outcome.”
And
this is not the end of it. The taste of success has left
many pro-Hezbollah Lebanese wanting more. They now want
to pressure Israel to “return” the Shebaa farms, even
though according to the UN it is not Lebanese territory:
it is Syrian. This trick was put together by Damascus
after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000. Once
the UN confirmed that Israel had abided by all the
requirements from UN Security Council Resolution 425,
and was no longer occupying Lebanese territory, Damascus
suddenly panicked. It realized that its ally Hezbollah
no longer had any justification to attack Israel.
Consequently, it decided to “donate” the Shebaa farms,
which is close to the Golan, to Lebanon. However, to the
fury of anti-Syrian elements in Lebanon, such as Walid
Jumblatt, Assad refused to sign a document endorsing
this.
Nevertheless,
Hezbollah gratefully accepted the verbal promises of
Syria and now wants to use its new leverage to pressure
Israel to return the territory to Lebanon. What should
worry Jerusalem and Washington is that Hezbollah and
Lebanon’s pro-Syrian president Michel
Suleiman want to do this with Syria’s help. In other
words, by releasing the Hezbollah hostages, Israel
inadvertently helped calls for
the return of
Syria to Lebanese politics. Furthermore, the rise of
Hezbollah’s influence in the region makes it even more
difficult and unattractive for Syria to break ranks with
Iran, a condition which Israel has demanded as part of
the peace talks.
The
invasion of Iraq showed that application of military
power can bring limited political gains. The entrance of
the United Sates into negotiations with Iran will enable
the U.S. to augment its military presence in the region,
in order to pressure Tehran. As strong as Iran may be in
the Middle East, it is still susceptible to pressure, as
shown recently by the exit
of the French oil giant Total from Iran’s gas sector.
This was a heavy blow to Ahmadinejad’s
government.
More
sanctions could be on the way if Tehran continues to act
belligerently and defy UN calls for the temporary suspension
of its enrichment program. And now, Tehran no longer has
the excuse that America is not interested in
negotiations. It is time to allow the State Department
to become involved in arenas where the Department of
Defense has no reach.
End of
Analysis