By: M. Javedanfar

22/07/2005

The outburst of anti-Syrian feelings in Lebanon in February this year which eventually lead to the withdrawal of Syria's armed forces made Bashar Al Assad a very bitter man.

As far as the Syrian hierarchy was concerned, the Syrian Army for the last 30 years has been maintaining stability in Lebanon. To them its was most ungracious and ungrateful of the Lebanese to turn around and call for Syria's expulsion after Syria's “help” in maintaining order in Lebanon for so many years.

Since Syria's withdrawal there have been allegations of Syrian involvement in the assassination of anti-Syrian figures in Lebanon. The assassinations are alleged to have to been Syria's way of exacting revenge against those who supported the expulsion of its forces.

If Syria was indeed behind the assassinations its planners would have noticed that the impact of their acts were limited.

Yes the assassinations did lead to periods of instability in Lebanon, but these were temporary. The assassinations did not lead to civil war nor caused the formation of a pro-Syrian government, both of which would have facilitated the possible return of Syria's presence in Lebanon's political and military arena.

Therefore failing to play the security card, Syria decided to go to the second weakest area of the Lebanese underbelly which is its economy.

With real GDP of $19 Billion and external debt of $32 Billion Lebanon is one of the most heavily indebted counties of the world. Its economy must start to improve as the debt servicing repayments, increasing public expenditure and fall in tourism after the Hariri assassination are stretching its economy to almost unbearable limits.

Lebanon's economy is not very rich in resources. This is why Lebanon's economic planners devised its economy on a model where Banking, Construction and Tourism are the main engines of the economy. Exports are also part of the economy, but with a value of $1 billion a year, they only produce 7% of the country's total GDP. Despite their small contribution exports especially from the agriculture sector are important as they create much needed jobs in rural areas of Lebanon. Furthermore Lebanon with its indebted economy needs as much income as it can get its hands on.

The catch here is that in order to export to its customers in the Arab world which make up a large part of its clients, Lebanon has only one land route and that is Syria. Its other land crossing is with Israel which it does not want to use.

On July 12 th Syrians customs reported finding explosives on a truck coming from Lebanon. On the same day the Syrian government also said that it had information about a car bomb destined for Syria from Lebanon. Since then Syria has been holding up Lebanese trucks who were either trying to reach their clients in Lebanon or wanted to cross Syria to reach other Arab countries where their clients are based.

The reason sited by the Syrians is the very same reason for which Damascus has been condemning Israel's checkpoints for, ie. security checks to ensure that terrorists and explosive do not enter the country.

Despite promises by Syria's Prime Minister Naji al-Otari to his Lebanese counterpart Najib Mitai, nothing has actually improved for Lebanon's beleaguered truckers trying to reach their destinations.

The President of the Arab League Amr Moussa wanted to get involved. However the Arab league does not have any legislative power to force an Arab country to change or implement a decision. Therefore the only power at the disposal of Mr Moussa are threats of condemnation of Syria at the next Arab league meeting.

The situation for Lebanese exporters is getting worst every day. Even Lebanese fishermen are getting arrested and put on trial for mistakenly crossing into Syrian waters. There are also reports of shootings between Lebanese customs officials and Syrian smugglers, as well as unconfirmed reports of shootings between Syrian and Lebanese border guards.

The Lebanese authorities are starting to panic and rightly so. The blockade has so far cost Lebanon's ailing economy close to $6 million in lost revenue and damaged agricultural goods.

There seems to be no solution in sight. Syria has just announced that it wants Lebanon to pay compensation to the families of 35 Syrian workers killed and 150 workers disabled in Lebanon after the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.

As far as many Lebanese are concerned this claim is unacceptable because during its 30 year presence Syria has never apologised nor compensated the families of the tens of thousands of Lebanese people which its forces killed.

The Lebanese people have wanted their independence from Syria for many years. However Syria was never going to make it easy for them. This is due to the economic benefits which the occupation of Lebanon provided for Syria as well as Syria's historic claims over Lebanon as a former part of Greater Syria (known in Arabic as Bilad a Shaam).

The fact that Syria chose last week which is when Lebanon's Prime Minister was trying to form a cabinet to start the blockade is a clear sign that Damascus wants to re-exert its influence on Lebanese politics.

The blockade was Assad's way of reminding the Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora that he could not ignore Syria for too long. Nor is it advisable for him to choose too many anti-Syrian politicians to join his cabinet.

However the gamble seems to have backfired.

Prior to the blockage dispute Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora was having a hard time uniting the different factions to agree to the formation of his cabinet. However as with before as soon as Syria becomes hostile towards Lebanon, Lebanese unity leaves its solitary exile and returns to its unfamiliar surroundings of Lebanese politics. How long it will stay is anyone's guess but Syria's hostility definitely attributes to its survival. This was clearly seen this week when during the blockages Mr Siniora was suddenly able to form his cabinet.

Furthermore Lebanon has now been added to the schedule list of destinations for Condoleeza Rice's trip to the Middle East. This will boost Lebanon's standing in Washington. It will also add to Assad's isolation because this is a clear sign that Lebanon is now politically protected by the US, so if and when Assad wishes to make life difficult for the Lebanese it will be engaging the Americans too.

It would be even worst for Assad if during Condoleeza Rice's trip she announces that the US plans to start Free Trade negotiations with Lebanon, just like Washington has been doing so with the countries of the Persian Gulf Co-operation Council. Although nothing of this sort has been suggested, it is the opinion of meepas© that such an act will reduce Lebanon's economic dependence on Syria. A Free Trade Agreement with Lebanon will also bring Lebanon new sources of revenue for its beleaguered economy.

It is expected that the border blockages will continue for another 10 days – at least, if not longer.

Everyone in Syria's intelligence hierarchy admired Bashar's father Hafez as a man who did not react in haste. Bashar's relatively quick agreement to withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon after the death of Hariri left Syria's hardliners disappointed that Assad the son is not like his late father.

This time Bashar is not going to make the same “mistake” again. Especially not since the Americans decided to get involved.

End of report

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